This should have behavior reasonably close to what you posted: http://community.monogame.net/uploads/default/original/2X/d/d789c3092994d01fd1ac15696576b2e0dbc5582e.png
(ofc talking just about stretching and polygon orientation)
If you want shader for this variant then let me know, if you dislike something about this let me know and I can take a look.
With settings closer to what you want:
I am not using data from previous frames, velocity vector is calculated inside shader for given step in world space (from velocity integral as Alkher mentioned), then projected on screen after which rest of vertex position is calculated in screen space. Thus using still same quite efficient system where whole vertex position is calculated purely on GPU.